Price and product variation in Washington's recreational cannabis market

Abstract

Background: Ten U.S. states, Canada, and Uruguay have passed laws to legalize the production and sale of cannabis for non-medical purposes. Available research has documented rapidly falling prices and changing product mixes, but many details are not well understood: particularly, the popularity, prices, and product characteristics of different cannabis edibles and extract-based products - each offering different ways to consume cannabis, with unclear health consequences.

Methods: This paper analyzes data from Washington's recreational cannabis market, which has recorded over 110 million retail item-transactions from July 2014 to October 2017. Previous research on price and product trends has focused mostly on herbal cannabis, which accounts for the majority, but a decreasing share, of sales. This paper applies advanced text-analytic methods to provide new insights, including (A) estimating potency data for edibles and (B) identifying extract sub-types. Patterns and trends are described, across product types, regarding THC and CBD profiles and price per THC.

Results: Extracts accounted for 28.5% of sales in October 2017. Of extracts categorized to subtype, nearly half were identified as "dabs", and another half "cartridges". In October 2017, price per 10 mg THC was roughly $3 among edibles, 70 cents among extract cartridges, and 30-40 cents for other flower and other extracts; solid concentrates offered the lowest priced THC among extract products. Price declines continue but have slowed. High-CBD chemovars are becoming more common, but still are almost non-existent in flower marijuana and rare (1% of sales) among extract products.

Conclusion: As Washington's recreational cannabis market has developed over three and a half years, trends identified in that market may serve as an early indication of potential issues in other states. Legislators and regulators in other jurisdictions with commercial non-medical cannabis markets may wish to establish policies responsive to these trends in product popularity, price, and potency.

Keywords: Cannabis; Drug markets; Drug potency; Marijuana.