Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Christopher R Field; Katharine J Ruskin; Jonathan B Cohen; Thomas P Hodgman; Adrienne I Kovach; Brian J Olsen; W Gregory Shriver; Chris S Elphick

doi:10.1111/ele.13384

Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Ecol Lett. 2019 Dec;22(12):2039-2048. doi: 10.1111/ele.13384. Epub 2019 Sep 15.

Authors

Christopher R Field¹, Katharine J Ruskin², Jonathan B Cohen³, Thomas P Hodgman⁴, Adrienne I Kovach⁵, Brian J Olsen⁶, W Gregory Shriver⁷, Chris S Elphick⁸

Affiliations

¹ National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, 1 Park Place, Annapolis, MD, 21401, USA.
² Ecology and Environmental Sciences program, University of Maine, 107 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME, 04469, USA.
³ Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA.
⁴ Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife, Bird Group, 650 State Street, Bangor, ME, 04401, USA.
⁵ Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 56 College Road, Durham, NH, 03824, USA.
⁶ School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, 200 Clapp Greenhouse, Orono, ME, 04469, USA.
⁷ Department of Entomology and Wildlife Ecology, University of Delaware, 257 Townsend Hall, Newark, DE, 19716, USA.
⁸ Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, U-43, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA.

PMID: 31523906
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13384

Abstract

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance-impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short-term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance-prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.

Keywords: Bayesian population viability analysis; coastal birds; disturbance; hurricanes; resilience; stochastic population modelling.

MeSH terms

Animals
Birds
Climate Change
Cyclonic Storms*
Ecology
Ecosystem

Abstract

MeSH terms

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