Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2019 Aug 5;116(31-32):521-527. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2019.0521.


Background: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C.

Methods: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation.

Results: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively.

Conclusion: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change*
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Global Warming / prevention & control
  • Goals
  • Humans
  • Myocardial Infarction / epidemiology*
  • Temperature*