Background: This 5-year follow-up of the CCgenos cross-sectional study aimed to observe real-life outcomes in a cohort of 997 Han Chinese patients with chronic HCV infection and to explore the impacts of HCV genotype, patient characteristics and treatment status.
Methods: Clinical information and centralized HCV RNA measures were collected every 6/3 months for untreated/treated patients. Overall disease progression was defined as ≥1 of: de novo development of cirrhosis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score increased by ≥2 points (if cirrhosis at baseline), progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplant or death. Cox regression assessed risk factors for the time from estimated infection to cirrhosis or HCC. Logistic regression assessed risk factors for incidence rates of cirrhosis and overall disease progression.
Results: 281 of 514 patients enrolled across China completed 5 years of follow-up. Overall disease progression occurred in 36/364 (9.9%) treated patients and 35/148 (23.6%) untreated patients (odds ratio = 0.35; 95% CI 0.21, 0.59; P<0.0001). Overall disease progression occurred in 6/231 (2.6%) patients achieving sustained virological response at 24 weeks (SVR24) versus 11/82 (13.4%) who did not (P=0.0002). Cirrhosis development was significantly associated with abnormal aspartate aminotransferase (AST), age ≥40 years, body mass index ≥28 kg/m2, HCV GT1, platelet count <100×109/l, and AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) ≥2 (multivariate Cox regression, P<0.05). HCC was significantly associated with HCV GT1 and platelet count <100×109/l (multivariate Cox regression, P<0.05).
Conclusions: Achieving SVR24 significantly reduced the probability of overall disease progression but no significant difference was seen for both cirrhosis and HCC during 5 years of follow-up.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01594554.