Background: In 2018, AJCC TNM staging changed for differentiated (DTC) and anaplastic (ATC) thyroid carcinoma. The impact of this change on mortality rates was investigated and compared with the MACIS prognostic score.
Methods: Analysis of a prospective database of DTC/ATC was undertaken. Patients were staged according to TNM7 and TNM8 criteria, and MACIS scores calculated. Five-year disease-specific mortality rates were determined. Proportions were compared with Fisher's exact and χ2 goodness-of-fit tests.
Results: Between August 2002 and December 2016, 310 patients had primary surgery for thyroid cancer. After exclusions, 159 patients (154 DTC, 5 ATC) remained to be studied. The MACIS score was less than 6 in 105 patients (66·0 per cent), 6-6·99 in 19 (11·9 per cent), 7-7·99 in 14 (8·8 per cent) and 8 or more in 21 (13·2 per cent), with corresponding disease-specific 5-year mortality rates of 0, 5, 14 and 86 per cent. For TNM7 the distribution was stage I in 53·5 per cent (85 patients), stage II in 10·1 per cent (16), stage III in 14·5 per cent (23) and stage IV in 22·0 per cent (35), and differed from that for TNM8: 76·7 per cent (122), 10·7 per cent (17), 4·4 per cent (7) and 8·2 per cent (13) respectively (P < 0·001). Overall disease-specific 5-year mortality rates by stage for TNM7 versus TNM8 were: stage I, 0 of 85 versus 3 of 100 (P = 0·251); stage II, 0 of 16 versus 6 of 16 (P = 0·018); stage III, 3 of 23 versus 2 of 7 (P = 0·565); stage IV, 20 of 32 versus 11 of 11 (P = 0·020).
Conclusion: Compared with TNM7, TNM8 downstaged more patients to stage I and accurately reflected worse prognosis for stage IV disease. TNM8 is an inferior predictor of mortality compared with MACIS.
© 2019 The Authors. BJS Open published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS Society Ltd.