Global modeling of nature's contributions to people

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Richard P Sharp; Charlotte Weil; Elena M Bennett; Unai Pascual; Katie K Arkema; Kate A Brauman; Benjamin P Bryant; Anne D Guerry; Nick M Haddad; Maike Hamann; Perrine Hamel; Justin A Johnson; Lisa Mandle; Henrique M Pereira; Stephen Polasky; Mary Ruckelshaus; M Rebecca Shaw; Jessica M Silver; Adrian L Vogl; Gretchen C Daily

doi:10.1126/science.aaw3372

Global modeling of nature's contributions to people

Science. 2019 Oct 11;366(6462):255-258. doi: 10.1126/science.aaw3372.

Authors

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer^{1

2}, Richard P Sharp³, Charlotte Weil³, Elena M Bennett⁴, Unai Pascual^{5

6

7}, Katie K Arkema^{3

8}, Kate A Brauman², Benjamin P Bryant^{3

9}, Anne D Guerry^{3

8}, Nick M Haddad¹⁰, Maike Hamann^{2

11}, Perrine Hamel³, Justin A Johnson², Lisa Mandle³, Henrique M Pereira^{12

13

14}, Stephen Polasky¹⁵, Mary Ruckelshaus^{3

8}, M Rebecca Shaw¹⁶, Jessica M Silver^{3

8}, Adrian L Vogl³, Gretchen C Daily^{3

17}

Affiliations

¹ Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. bchaplin@stanford.edu.
² Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
³ Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
⁴ Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada.
⁵ Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.
⁶ Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.
⁷ Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
⁸ School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
⁹ Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
¹⁰ Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA.
¹¹ Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
¹² German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.
¹³ Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.
¹⁴ CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)-InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.
¹⁵ Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
¹⁶ World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.
¹⁷ Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

PMID: 31601772
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3372

Abstract

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Africa
Americas
Asia
Climate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources
Crops, Agricultural*
Developing Countries
Ecosystem
Environment
Europe
Humans
Models, Theoretical*
Nature*
Pollination*
Water Pollution
Water Quality*