The impact of the French soda tax on prices and purchases. An ex post evaluation

PLoS One. 2019 Oct 11;14(10):e0223196. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0223196. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

We estimate the price and consumption effects of the 2012 French tax on sweetened non-alcoholic drinks using a difference-in-difference approach. Our identification strategy exploits Italian data as a natural control group. We use French and Italian Consumer Price Indices, purchase prices and quantities from the 2011 and 2012 Kantar and GfK home-scan surveys for two French regions and two neighbouring Italian regions, and expenditure data from the 2011 and 2012 Italian Expenditure Survey. We check for the robustness of our results by applying the difference-in-difference models using only French data and considering water as the benchmark (control) good. We find that the tax is transmitted to the prices of taxed drinks, with full transmission for soft drinks and partial transmission for fruit juices. The evidence on purchase responses is mixed and less robust, indicating at most a very small reduction in soft drink purchases (about half a litre per capita per year), an impact which would be consistent with the low tax rate. We find suggestive evidence of a larger response by the sub-sample of heavy purchasers. Fruit juices and water do not seem to have been affected by the tax.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Carbonated Beverages / economics*
  • Choice Behavior*
  • Commerce / statistics & numerical data
  • Consumer Behavior / economics*
  • Consumer Behavior / statistics & numerical data
  • Drinking Water / analysis
  • Female
  • France
  • Fruit and Vegetable Juices / economics
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Sugar-Sweetened Beverages / economics*
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Taxes / statistics & numerical data*

Substances

  • Drinking Water

Grants and funding

The preparation of this paper was supported by the DEterminants of DIet and Physical ACtivity (DEDIPAC) knowledge hub. This work is supported by the Joint Programming Initiative ‘Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life.’ OA received financial support from the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA France), CB received financial support from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) and MM received financial support from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.