Purpose: To develop a model to select appropriate candidates for irradiation stent placement among patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer with malignant biliary obstruction (UPC-MBO). Methods: This retrospective study included 106 patients treated with an irradiation stent for UPC-MBO. These patients were randomly divided into a training group (74 patients) and a validation group (32 patients). A clinical model for predicting restenosis-free survival (RFS) was developed with clinical predictors selected by univariate and multivariate analyses. After integrating the radiomics signature, a combined model was constructed to predict RFS. The predictive performance was evaluated with the concordance index (C-index) in both the training and validation groups. The median risk score of progression in the training group was used to divide patients into high- and low-risk subgroups. Results: Radiomics features were integrated with clinical predictors to develop a combined model. The predictive performance was better in the combined model (C-index, 0.791 and 0.779 in the training and validation groups, respectively) than in the clinical model (C-index, 0.673 and 0.667 in the training and validation groups, respectively). According to the median risk score of 1.264, the RFS was significantly different between the high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.001 for the training group, and p = 0.016 for the validation group). Conclusions: The radiomics-based model had good performance for RFS prediction in patients with UPC-MBO who received an irradiation stent. Patients with slow progression should consider undergoing irradiation stent placement for a longer RFS.
Keywords: irradiation stent; malignant biliary obstruction; pancreatic cancer; radiomics; survival.
Copyright © 2019 Zhou, Han, Lu, Wei, Guo, Zhu, Huang, Ji, Lv, Chen, Zhu, Jin, Tian and Teng.