Using a deterministic compartmental modeling procedure to fit prevalence from 2005-2015, we projected new HIV cases during 2016-2026 under different coverage rates ranging from 0.0001 (at baseline) to 0.15 (an optimistic assumption) with simulations on varying transmission rates, model calibration to match historical data, and sensitivity analyses for different assumptions. Compared with the baseline (λ = 0.0001), we found the new HIV cases would reduce with the increase of coverage rates of the voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex wtih men (MSM). The higher the coverage rate, the lower the new HIV incidence would be. As one of the first studies to model the potential impact of VMMC among MSM in China, our model suggested a modest to the significant public health impact of VMMC. Even at just 15% VMMC annual uptake rate, the reduction in new infections is substantial. Therefore, there is a strong need to determine the efficacy of VMMC among MSM, to improve the evidence base for its potential use among MSM in low circumcision settings. Only then can policymakers decide whether to incorporate VMMC into a package of HIV prevention interventions targeting MSM.
Keywords: China; HIV; Voluntary medical male circumcision; incidence; mathematical modeling; men who have sex with men.