Predictive value of serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin for early pregnancy outcomes

Arch Gynecol Obstet. 2020 Jan;301(1):295-302. doi: 10.1007/s00404-019-05388-2. Epub 2019 Nov 22.


Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) levels and early pregnancy outcomes in women who became pregnant using assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs).

Methods: In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 523 pregnancies after ART use, with respect to the early clinical outcomes based on the serum β-HCG levels. The significance of using serum β-HCG levels to predict outcomes in early pregnancy was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and cutoff values of serum β-HCG.

Results: We found that elevated serum β-HCG levels resulted in decreased biochemical pregnancy rates, increased multiple rates, and decreased ongoing and ectopic pregnancy rates. The cutoff values of serum β-HCG levels for the prediction of biochemical pregnancy were 213.15 IU/L, 986.65 IU/L, and 2206.5 IU/L for singletons, multiples, and twins or triplets, respectively.

Conclusion: The serum β-HCG level 14 or 12 days after D3 or D5 embryo transfer (conducted 3 or 5 days after oocyte retrieval), respectively, predicts biochemical/clinical pregnancy and singleton/multiple pregnancy with robust sensitivity and specificity.

Keywords: Biochemical pregnancy; Clinical pregnancy; Early pregnancy outcomes; Multiples; Serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human / blood*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Predictive Value of Tests*
  • Pregnancy
  • Pregnancy Outcome
  • Retrospective Studies


  • Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human