Background and Purpose- Therapeutic decision making for small unruptured intracranial aneurysms (<10 mm) is difficult. We aimed to develop a rupture risk model for small intracranial aneurysms in Japanese adults, including clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic parameters. Methods- We analyzed 338 small unruptured aneurysms; 35 ruptured during the observation period, and 303 remained stable. Clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic parameters were considered. Computational fluid dynamics was used to calculate hemodynamic parameters based on computed tomography images of all aneurysms in their unruptured state. Differences between the ruptured and unruptured groups were tested by the Mann-Whitney U or Fisher exact tests. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to obtain a rupture risk model. Its predictive ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results- The risk model revealed that rupture may be more likely to in younger patients (odds ratio [OR], 0.92 for each age increase of 1 year [95% CI, 0.88-0.96] P<0.001) with multiple aneurysms (OR, 2.58 [95% CI, 1.07-6.19] P=0.03), located at a bifurcation (OR, 5.45 [95% CI, 1.87-15.85] P=0.002), with a bleb (OR, 4.09 [95% CI, 1.42-11.79] P=0.009), larger length (OR, 1.91 for each increase of 1 mm [95% CI, 1.42-2.57] P<0.001), and lower pressure loss coefficient (OR, 0.33 for each decrease of 1 unit [95% CI, 0.14-0.77] P=0.01). The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were 0.800, 0.752, and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.739-0.914) respectively. Conclusions- Younger age, presence of multiple aneurysms, location at a bifurcation, presence of a bleb, larger length, and lower pressure loss coefficient were identified as risk factors for rupture of small intracranial aneurysms. The risk model should be validated in further studies.
Keywords: Japan; adult; hemodynamics; intracranial aneurysm; rupture.