Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators with sample size recalculation

Stat Pap (Berl). 2019 Apr;60(2):373-394. doi: 10.1007/s00362-019-01095-x. Epub 2019 Feb 28.

Abstract

Consider an experiment in which the primary objective is to determine the significance of a treatment effect at a predetermined type I error and statistical power. Assume that the sample size required to maintain these type I error and power will be re-estimated at an interim analysis. A secondary objective is to estimate the treatment effect. Our main finding is that the asymptotic distributions of standardized statistics are random mixtures of distributions, which are non-normal except under certain model choices for sample size re-estimation (SSR). Monte-Carlo simulation studies and an illustrative example highlight the fact that asymptotic distributions of estimators with SSR may differ from the asymptotic distribution of the same estimators without SSR.

Keywords: 62E20; 62F05; 62K99; 62L05; adaptive designs; asymptotic distribution theory; interim analysis; local alternatives; maximum likelihood estimation; mixture distributions.