[Calculating the risk of acquiring measles of chileans traveling abroad]

Rev Med Chil. 2019 May;147(5):650-657. doi: 10.4067/S0034-98872019000500650.
[Article in Spanish]

Abstract

Background: There is always a risk of importing infectious diseases when travelling abroad.

Aim: To estimate the effective risk of a Chilean of acquiring measles during a travel by countries where measles outbreaks have been reported, considering the present level of immunity in the country.

Material and methods: Previously established mathematical models using differential equations were applied to calculate the risk of acquiring measles of people traveling to endemic areas.

Results: The probability of acquiring measles of a voyager is 8.11 x 10-8.

Conclusions: These estimations help decision making about preventive measures for travelers to endemic measles areas.

MeSH terms

  • Chile / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Humans
  • Measles / epidemiology
  • Measles / prevention & control
  • Measles / transmission*
  • Measles Vaccine
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Probability
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Travel-Related Illness*
  • Vaccination

Substances

  • Measles Vaccine