Due to the importance of understanding the relationship between agricultural growth and environmental quality, we analyzed how high-quality agricultural development can affect carbon emissions in Northwest China. Based on the concept of the environmental Kuznets curve, this study uses provincial panel data from 1993 to 2017 to make empirical analyses inflection point changes and spatio-temporal differences in agricultural carbon emissions. The highlights of our findings are as follows: (1) In Northwest China, there is an inverse N-shape curve, and the critical values are 3578 yuan/hm2 and 45,738 yuan/hm2, respectively. (2) For 2017, the agricultural economic intensity was 50,670 yuan/hm2, exceeding the critical value (high inflection point) of 45,738 yuan/hm2. (3) Ningxia, Gansu, and Qinghai have not reached the turning point. Having comparable climate, natural conditions, and overall environmental factors, these three provinces would reach the turning point at similar time periods. (4) The average value in agricultural carbon emission intensity in the region is 767.79 kg/hm2, and the order based on intensity is Xinjiang > Shaanxi > Ningxia > Gansu > Qinghai.
Keywords: EKC model; Northwest China; agriculture; carbon emission; inflection point; spatio-temporal differentiation; vulnerable area.