Background: Controversy exists on whether tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is superior to entecavir (ETV) in lowering the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. This meta-analysis was performed to clarify this issue with critical clinical and methodological considerations.
Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to Oct 28, 2019. Randomized control trials and observational studies reporting the impact of TDF and ETV on the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were eligible. Risk ratios (RRs) calculated with cumulative incidence rate and/or annual incidence rate, or hazard ratio (HR) were pooled using random-effect models. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess the potential impact of between-study level and within-study level factors.
Results: A total of 32 studies with 78,136 CHB patients were included. Overall cumulative incidence rate of HCC was lower in TDF group than ETV group (3.07% vs. 5.25%; RR 0.55; 95% CI 0.42-0.72). However, this difference was not statistically significant in pooled results of hazard ratio (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.73-1.04) and RR calculated with annual incidence rate (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.67-1.16). Potential confounding factors at between-study level included prior nucleos(t)ide usage, disease stage at baseline and region of study. More importantly, at within-study level, disparity in follow-up duration between TDF and ETV groups may impact the result, usually favoring a treatment with shorter follow-up duration.
Conclusions: Compared with ETV, TDF treatment tended to have a lower overall cumulative incidence rate of HCC. However, disparity in follow-up duration may be a key factor to influence the result.
Keywords: Entecavir; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Meta-analysis; Systematic review; Tenofovir.