What to expect from the price of healthy and unhealthy foods over time? The case from Brazil

Abstract

Objective: To measure change in price of food groups over time (1995-2030) in Brazil, considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations.

Design: Data from the Household Budget Survey (2008-2009 HBS) and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI) were used to create a data set containing monthly prices for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102), from January 1995 to December 2017. Data on price of foods and beverages from 2008-2009 HBS (referring to January 2009) were used to calculate real price over time using the monthly variation in prices from NSCPI. All prices were deflated to December 2017. Foods and beverages were classified following the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. The monthly price for each food group and subgroup was used to analyse changes in prices from 1995 to 2017 and to forecast prices up to 2030 using fractional polynomial models.

Setting: Brazil.

Participants: National estimates of foods and beverages purchased for Brazil.

Results: In 1995, ultra-processed foods were the most expensive group (R$ 6·51/kg), followed by processed foods (R$ 6·44/kg), then unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients (R$ 3·45/kg). Since the early 2000s, the price of ultra-processed foods underwent successive reductions, becoming cheaper than processed foods and reducing the distance between it and the price of the other group. Forecasts indicate that unhealthy foods will become cheaper than healthy foods in 2026.

Conclusions: Food prices in Brazil have changed unfavourably considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. This may imply a decrease in the quality of the population's diet.

Keywords: Chronic disease; Food prices; Public health; Time trends; Ultra-processed foods.

Fig. 1

Mean monthly price† (R$/kg) of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients (), processed foods () and ultra-processed foods () for the period from 1995 to 2017 and forecast up to 2030‡. Brazil§, 1995–2030. Observations: the dashed segment of each group represents projected price estimates. R²: 0·89 (unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients), 0·87 (processed foods), 0·55 (ultra-processed foods). †Real price from January 1995 to December 2017, deflated to represent December 2017 values. ‡From 2017 to 2030, estimated through fractional polynomial models. §Based on a novel data set created by combining 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey data and information from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes. For further information, see the ‘Methods’ section

Fig. 2

Price of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients relative to the price of ultra-processed foods† (%) for the period from 1995 to 2017 and forecast up to 2030‡. Brazil§, 1995–2030. Observations: the dashed segment represents projected relative price estimates. †Relative prices from January 1995 to December 2017, calculated through real price of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients v. ultra-processed foods. ‡Relative prices from 2017 to 2030, calculated through estimated price of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients v. ultra-processed foods. §Based on a novel data set created by combining 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey data and information from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes. For further information, see the ‘Methods’ section

Fig. 3

Mean monthly price† (R$/kg) of (a) unprocessed or minimally processed foods (, meats; , milk and eggs; , vegetables; , fruits; , roots and tubers; , cereals and pulses) and (b) processed culinary ingredients (, vegetable and animal fats; , sugar; , salt) for the period from 1995 to 2017 and forecast up to 2030‡. Brazil§, 1995–2030. Observations: the dashed segment of each group represents projected price estimates. R²: 0·93 (meats), 0·68 (milk and eggs), 0·52 (vegetables), 0·65 (fruits), 0·16 (roots and tubers), 0·45 (cereals and pulses), 0·15 (vegetable and animal fats), 0·30 (sugar), 0·80 (salt). †Real price from January 1995 to December 2017, deflated to represent December 2017 values. ‡From 2017 to 2030, estimated through fractional polynomial models. §Based on a novel data set created by combining 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey data and information from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes. For further information, see the ‘Methods’ section

Fig. 4

Mean monthly price† (R$/kg) of (a) processed foods (, processed meat; , processed vegetables; , French bread) and (b) ultra-processed foods (, confectionery; , sausages; , cakes, bread and crackers; , other ultra-processed foods; , soft drink) for the period from 1995 to 2017 and forecast for 2030‡. Brazil§, 1995–2030. Observations: the dashed segment of each group represents projected price estimates. R²: 0·91 (processed meats), 0·40 (processed vegetables), 0·83 (French bread), 0·56 (confectionery), 0·48 (sausages), 0·70 (cakes, bread and crackers), 0·57 (soft drink), 0·75 (other ultra-processed foods). †Real price from January 1995 to December 2017, deflated to represent December 2017 values. ‡From 2017 to 2030, estimated through fractional polynomial models. §Based on a novel data set created by combining 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey data and information from the National System of Consumer Price Indexes. For further information, see the ‘Methods’ section