Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

Katsuichiro Goda; Crescenzo Petrone; Raffaele De Risi; Tiziana Rossetto

doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1352-1

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. 2017;31(9):2337-2355. doi: 10.1007/s00477-016-1352-1. Epub 2016 Nov 12.

Authors

Katsuichiro Goda¹, Crescenzo Petrone², Raffaele De Risi¹, Tiziana Rossetto²

Affiliations

¹ 1Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's School of Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
² 2Department of Civil, Environmental & Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.

Abstract

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake-tsunami hazards.

Keywords: 2011 Tohoku earthquake; Earthquake source modeling; Stochastic finite-fault ground-motion simulation; Stochastic tsunami simulation.