Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4):2000057. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057.


As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Europe; importation risk; travel ban.

MeSH terms

  • Air Travel*
  • Betacoronavirus*
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections* / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections* / prevention & control
  • Coronavirus Infections* / transmission
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / transmission
  • Public Policy*
  • Risk Assessment*
  • SARS-CoV-2