Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4):2000058. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058.

Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Wuhan; coronavirus; emerging infectious disease; mathematical modelling.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus / pathogenicity*
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Global Health
  • Humans
  • Infection Control
  • Influenza A virus / pathogenicity
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • Risk
  • SARS Virus / pathogenicity
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / transmission*
  • Virus Replication*