Prognostic model for newly diagnosed CLL patients in Binet stage A: results of the multicenter, prospective CLL1 trial of the German CLL study group

Leukemia. 2020 Apr;34(4):1038-1051. doi: 10.1038/s41375-020-0727-y. Epub 2020 Feb 10.


The heterogeneity of early stage CLL challenges prognostication, and refinement of prognostic indices for risk-adapted management in this population is essential. The aim of the multicenter, prospective CLL1 trial was to explore a novel prognostic model (CLL1-PM) developed to identify risk groups, separating patients with favorable from others with dismal prognosis. A cohort of 539 clinically, biochemically, and genetically characterized Binet stage A patients were observed until progression, first-line treatment, or death. Multivariate analysis identified six independent factors associated with overall survival (OS) and time-to-first treatment (TTFT): del(17p), unmutated IGHV, del(11q), ß2-microglobulin >3.5 mg/dL, lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) <12 months, and age >60 years. These factors were integrated into the CLL1-PM, which stratified patients into four risk groups. The CLL1-PM was prognostic for OS and TTFT, e.g., the risk of treatment at 5 years was 85.9, 51.8, 27.6, and 11.3% for very low (0-1.5), low (2-4), high (4.5-6.5), and very high-risk (7-14) scores, respectively (P < 0.001). Notably, in addition to factors comprising CLL-IPI, we substantiated del(11q) and LDT as prognostic factors in early CLL. Altogether, our findings would be useful to effectively stratify Binet stage A patients, particularly within the scope of clinical trials evaluating novel agents.

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial, Phase III
  • Multicenter Study
  • Randomized Controlled Trial
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / therapeutic use
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / genetics*
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell / drug therapy
  • Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell / genetics*
  • Leukemia, Lymphocytic, Chronic, B-Cell / pathology*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mutation*
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Rate
  • Time-to-Treatment


  • Biomarkers, Tumor