Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease From Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 May;26(5):1049-1052. doi: 10.3201/eid2605.200146. Epub 2020 May 17.

Abstract

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; China; SARS-CoV-2; Wuhan; coronavirus; epidemiology; importation; outbreak; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities
  • Coronavirus Infections* / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics*
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / epidemiology
  • Quarantine
  • Risk Assessment*
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Transportation*

Supplementary concepts

  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2