[Analysis on epidemic situation and spatiotemporal changes of COVID-19 in Anhui]

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Jun 6;54(6):630-633. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200221-00150.
[Article in Chinese]

Abstract

We used the epidemic data of COVID-19 published on the official website of the municipal health commissions in Anhui province to map the spatiotemporal changes of confirmed cases, fit the epidemic situation by the population growth curve at different stages and analyze the epidemic situation in Anhui Province. It was found that the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 156/100 000 by February 18, 2020 and the trend of COVID-19 epidemic declined after February 7 with a change from J-shaped curve to S-shaped curve. As the reporting time of cases might be 3-5 days later than the actual onset time, the number of new cases in Anhui province actually began to decline around February 2 to February 4, 2020.

利用安徽省各地市卫生健康委员会官方网站公布的新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情数据,绘制安徽省确诊病例数时空分布地图,运用种群增长曲线拟合安徽省不同阶段疫情变化曲线,对全省和各地市疫情进行统计描述与分析。截至2020年2月18日,安徽省新冠肺炎累积发病率为1.56/10万,且安徽省报告新冠肺炎疫情在2月7日后呈现下降趋势,并由J型曲线变化到S型曲线,因病例报告时间比实际发病时间可能推迟3~5 d,安徽省新增病例实际于2020年2月2—4日前后开始下降。.

Keywords: Anhui Province; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Spatiotemporal distribution.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Epidemics*
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis