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. 2020 Feb 29;17(5):1577.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17051577.

Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China

Huashan Xu  1 , Yufen Ren  1 , Hua Zheng  1 , Zhiyun Ouyang  1 , Bo Jiang  2
Affiliations

Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China

Huashan Xu et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

During the past decades, runoff has been highly influenced by climate change and human activities in Haihe River basin, and it is important to analyze the runoff trends and the drivers of its change to guide water resources management. The Mann-Kendall method and Pettitt test were conducted to analyze the hydrological and climate trends. Data from six sub-basins were used, including runoff at six representative hydrological stations and precipitation and air temperature at 49 meteorological stations. We used multiple-regression analysis and policy review to explore the influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff change at six sub-basins. According to the results, annual runoff showed a significant downward trend at six hydrological stations (p < 0.05), and the most probable change points at all stations showed up during the period from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. Moreover, the middle and late 1990s could be another probable abrupt change point at Luan River and Chaobai River. The declining trend of the annual mean precipitation at the six sub-basins was insignificant (p > 0.05), and there were no significant abrupt change points except the Zhang River area (p < 0.05). Compared with the precipitation trend, the annual mean air temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend at all stations, and the period from the late 1980s to the early 1990s might be the most probable abrupt change points at all four sub-basins. The trend analysis and the abrupt change point analysis suggest that mean air temperature is the main climate factor that will lead to the decline in the runoff time-series, while the insignificant downward trend of the precipitation might accelerate the downward trend of the runoff data. Through elevant policy measures, including land-use reform and the construction of the Three-North (north, northeast, and northwest China) Shelter Forest, China started to implement a family-contract responsibility system and initiated the first stage of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in 1978. The land-use reform policies greatly stimulated the peasants' initiative for land management and significantly changed the land use pattern and water use quantity in the Haihe River basin in a short time. Besides, the precipitation decreased and the air temperature rose, so an abrupt change in runoff occurred from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The abrupt change in the runoff in the middle and late 1990s highly tallied with the construction time of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program. After near 20 years of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, the forest area increased, the forest quality had been improved, and the vegetation coverage on the underlying surface had been changed significantly, so the construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program was an important cause of runoff change in the middle and late 1990s. Also, change in precipitation and air temperature enlarged the effect of change in the runoff.

Keywords: Haihe River Basin; abrupt change; human activity; runoff.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Areas encompassing the implementation of the Three North Shelter Forest Program and Beijing-Tianjin Wind and Sand Source Control Project in the Haihe River Basin, as well as the distribution of hydrological stations.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Detection results of the abrupt change point of air temperature in the six sub-basins of the Haihe River Basin.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Detection results of the abrupt change points of precipitation in the six sub-basins of the Haihe River Basin.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Abrupt change detection results of runoff in the six sub-basins of the Haihe River Basin.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Relationship between precipitation and runoff in the upstream areas of the Luan River, Yongding River, Ziya River, and Zhang River sub-basins.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Relationship between precipitation and runoff in the upstream areas of the Luan River, Yongding River, Ziya River, and Zhang River sub-basins.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Soil-retaining dam and slopes reshaped into terraces in the Haihe River Basin.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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