Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(9):2000202. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202.


Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.

Keywords: COVID-19; Europe; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; pandemic; preparedness.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Betacoronavirus / pathogenicity
  • COVID-19
  • Comorbidity
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Disaster Planning*
  • Epidemics*
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • European Union
  • Forecasting
  • Health Planning*
  • Humans
  • Internationality
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Public Health
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Uncertainty