Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1339-1441. doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200320. Epub 2020 Jun 17.


We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; case-fatality risk; coronaviruses; pandemic; respiratory diseases; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / mortality*
  • Risk Assessment
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Survival Rate