Retrospective analysis of the possibility of predicting the COVID-19 outbreak from Internet searches and social media data, China, 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(10):2000199. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000199.

Abstract

The peak of Internet searches and social media data about the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak occurred 10-14 days earlier than the peak of daily incidences in China. Internet searches and social media data had high correlation with daily incidences, with the maximum r > 0.89 in all correlations. The lag correlations also showed a maximum correlation at 8-12 days for laboratory-confirmed cases and 6-8 days for suspected cases.

Keywords: Baidu Index; COVID-19; Google Trends; Internet surveillance; Weibo Index; coronavirus.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis*
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Internet*
  • Laboratories / statistics & numerical data*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Population Surveillance / methods*
  • Public Health Practice
  • Search Engine / statistics & numerical data*
  • Social Media / statistics & numerical data*
  • Social Media / trends
  • Web Browser / statistics & numerical data*
  • Web Browser / trends