Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, March 2020

Frederik Verelst; Elise Kuylen; Philippe Beutels

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000323

Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, March 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Apr;25(13):2000323. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000323.

Authors

Frederik Verelst¹, Elise Kuylen^{1

2}, Philippe Beutels^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
² Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
³ School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

PMID: 32265003
PMCID: PMC7140594
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000323

Abstract

European healthcare systems face extreme pressure from coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We relate country-specific accumulated COVID-19 deaths (intensity approach) and active COVID-19 cases (magnitude approach) to measures of healthcare system capacity: hospital beds, healthcare workers and healthcare expenditure. Modelled by the intensity approach with a composite measure for healthcare capacity, the countries experiencing the highest pressure on 25 March 2020 - relative to Italy on 11 March - were Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and France (www.covid-hcpressure.org).

Keywords: COVID-19; ICU; Italy; healthcare; surge capacity.

MeSH terms

Bed Occupancy*
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
Coronavirus / isolation & purification*
Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis*
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
Delivery of Health Care / organization & administration*
Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
Europe / epidemiology
Health Expenditures / statistics & numerical data*
Health Personnel / statistics & numerical data*
Health Workforce / statistics & numerical data*
Hospital Bed Capacity*
Humans
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis*
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral / virology
Population Surveillance / methods*
SARS-CoV-2
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / virology
Surge Capacity*