Commentary on Ferguson, et al., "Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand"

Bull Math Biol. 2020 Apr 8;82(4):52. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00726-x.


A recent manuscript (Ferguson et al. in Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, London, 2020. from Imperial College modelers examining ways to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19 has attracted much attention. In this paper, we will discuss a coarse taxonomy of models and explore the context and significance of the Imperial College and other models in contributing to the analysis of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Compartmental model; Epidemiology; Non-pharmaceutical intervention.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Betacoronavirus*
  • COVID-19
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Clinical Laboratory Techniques
  • Coronavirus Infections* / diagnosis
  • Coronavirus Infections* / mortality
  • Coronavirus Infections* / prevention & control
  • Delivery of Health Care
  • Forecasting
  • Health Resources
  • Health Services Needs and Demand*
  • Humans
  • Infection Control*
  • Interprofessional Relations
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / diagnosis
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / mortality
  • Pneumonia, Viral* / prevention & control
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Time Factors