Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS

Infect Genet Evol. 2020 Aug:82:104306. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306. Epub 2020 Apr 8.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.

Keywords: 2008 MSC: R181.2; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Infectious kinetics; MERS; SARS.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus / growth & development*
  • Betacoronavirus / physiology
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Coronavirus Infections / virology
  • Hong Kong / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / growth & development*
  • Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / physiology
  • Models, Biological*
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Pneumonia, Viral / virology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Saudi Arabia / epidemiology
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus / growth & development*
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus / physiology