Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

doi:10.7326/M20-1565

Editorial

. 2020 Aug 4;173(3):226-227.

doi: 10.7326/M20-1565. Epub 2020 Apr 14.

Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nicholas P Jewell¹, Joseph A Lewnard², Britta L Jewell³

Affiliations

¹ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, and University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (N.P.J.).
² University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (J.A.L.).
³ Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (B.L.J.).

PMID: 32289150
PMCID: PMC7197035
DOI: 10.7326/M20-1565

Free PMC article

Editorial

Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nicholas P Jewell et al. Ann Intern Med. 2020.

Free PMC article

. 2020 Aug 4;173(3):226-227.

doi: 10.7326/M20-1565. Epub 2020 Apr 14.

Authors

Nicholas P Jewell¹, Joseph A Lewnard², Britta L Jewell³

Affiliations

¹ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, and University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (N.P.J.).
² University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (J.A.L.).
³ Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (B.L.J.).

PMID: 32289150
PMCID: PMC7197035
DOI: 10.7326/M20-1565

Abstract

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model for predicting the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has attracted considerable attention, including from the U.S. government. The appearance of certainty of model estimates is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead, but caution is warranted regarding the validity and usefulness of the model projections for policymakers.

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References

1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. New COVID-19 forecasts: US hospitals could be overwhelmed in the second week of April by demand for ICU beds, and US deaths could total 81,000 by July. Accessed at www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-coul.... on 30 March 2020.
1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME | The Chris Murray Model | Dr. Deborah Birx | COVID-19 Model | “Meet The Press”. 31 March 2020. Accessed at www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnd_wlTL8_4. on 3 April 2020.
1. Bregman DJ, Langmuir AD. Farr's law applied to AIDS projections. JAMA. 1990;263:1522-5. [PMID: 2308183] doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440110088033. - PubMed
1. @CT_Bergstrom. 1. A somewhat more technical thread than usual. 28 March 2020. Accessed at https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243819232950751233. on 13 April 2020.
1. Kuo L. Coronavirus: China bars 11m residents from leaving city at centre of outbreak. The Guardian. 22 January 2020. Accessed at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/22/coronavirus-china-measures-rein-sp.... on 31 March 2020.

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[1] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. New COVID-19 forecasts: US hospitals could be overwhelmed in the second week of April by demand for ICU beds, and US deaths could total 81,000 by July. Accessed at www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-coul.... on 30 March 2020.

[2] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. New COVID-19 forecasts: US hospitals could be overwhelmed in the second week of April by demand for ICU beds, and US deaths could total 81,000 by July. Accessed at www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-coul.... on 30 March 2020.

[3] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME | The Chris Murray Model | Dr. Deborah Birx | COVID-19 Model | “Meet The Press”. 31 March 2020. Accessed at www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnd_wlTL8_4. on 3 April 2020.

[4] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME | The Chris Murray Model | Dr. Deborah Birx | COVID-19 Model | “Meet The Press”. 31 March 2020. Accessed at www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnd_wlTL8_4. on 3 April 2020.

[5] Bregman DJ, Langmuir AD. Farr's law applied to AIDS projections. JAMA. 1990;263:1522-5. [PMID: 2308183] doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440110088033. - PubMed

[6] Bregman DJ, Langmuir AD. Farr's law applied to AIDS projections. JAMA. 1990;263:1522-5. [PMID: 2308183] doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440110088033. - PubMed

[7] @CT_Bergstrom. 1. A somewhat more technical thread than usual. 28 March 2020. Accessed at https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243819232950751233. on 13 April 2020.

[8] @CT_Bergstrom. 1. A somewhat more technical thread than usual. 28 March 2020. Accessed at https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243819232950751233. on 13 April 2020.

[9] Kuo L. Coronavirus: China bars 11m residents from leaving city at centre of outbreak. The Guardian. 22 January 2020. Accessed at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/22/coronavirus-china-measures-rein-sp.... on 31 March 2020.

[10] Kuo L. Coronavirus: China bars 11m residents from leaving city at centre of outbreak. The Guardian. 22 January 2020. Accessed at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/22/coronavirus-china-measures-rein-sp.... on 31 March 2020.

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Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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