Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ann Intern Med. 2020 Aug 4;173(3):226-227. doi: 10.7326/M20-1565. Epub 2020 Apr 14.


The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model for predicting the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has attracted considerable attention, including from the U.S. government. The appearance of certainty of model estimates is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead, but caution is warranted regarding the validity and usefulness of the model projections for policymakers.

Publication types

  • Editorial

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / mortality*
  • Forecasting*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / mortality*
  • Quality Indicators, Health Care
  • SARS-CoV-2