Spatial patterns and social-economic influential factors of population aging: A global assessment from 1990 to 2010

Abstract

The world's population is aging rapidly. In this paper, three population aging indicators were collected to represent the elderly population, the oldest-old population, and centenarians. The spatial patterns of three population aging indicators and the influencing social-economic factors and their spatial spillover effects in the world from 1990 to 2010 were investigated. The empirical strategy was based on application of spatial autocorrelation methods and spatial error modeling. The results revealed the significant positive spatial autocorrelation as well as the obvious spatial disparities and clusters of the aging indicators in the world. Furthermore, spatial spillover effects of population aging indicators were detected with positive influence of several social-economic factors (e.g., per capita GNI, urbanization rate, and life expectancy) not only of population aging in a country itself, but in its neighboring counties. In sum, these findings indicated that population aging are a spatio-temporal process, and the spatial spillover effects from neighbors also vary among these indicators, which should be considered into the differentiated policies in response to the challenge of an aging society.

Keywords: Population aging; Social-economic factors; Spatial error model; Spatial spillover effects.