Long Noncoding RNA and Predictive Model To Improve Diagnosis of Clinically Diagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Abstract

Clinically diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients lack microbiological evidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and misdiagnosis or delayed diagnosis often occurs as a consequence. We investigated the potential of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) and corresponding predictive models to diagnose these patients. We enrolled 1,764 subjects, including clinically diagnosed PTB patients, microbiologically confirmed PTB cases, non-TB disease controls, and healthy controls, in three cohorts (screening, selection, and validation). Candidate lncRNAs differentially expressed in blood samples of the PTB and healthy control groups were identified by microarray and reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR) in the screening cohort. Logistic regression models were developed using lncRNAs and/or electronic health records (EHRs) from clinically diagnosed PTB patients and non-TB disease controls in the selection cohort. These models were evaluated by area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and decision curve analyses, and the optimal model was presented as a Web-based nomogram, which was evaluated in the validation cohort. Three differentially expressed lncRNAs (ENST00000497872, n333737, and n335265) were identified. The optimal model (i.e., nomogram) incorporated these three lncRNAs and six EHRs (age, hemoglobin, weight loss, low-grade fever, calcification detected by computed tomography [CT calcification], and interferon gamma release assay for tuberculosis [TB-IGRA]). The nomogram showed an AUC of 0.89, a sensitivity of 0.86, and a specificity of 0.82 in differentiating clinically diagnosed PTB cases from non-TB disease controls of the validation cohort, which demonstrated better discrimination and clinical net benefit than the EHR model. The nomogram also had a discriminative power (AUC, 0.90; sensitivity, 0.85; specificity, 0.81) in identifying microbiologically confirmed PTB patients. lncRNAs and the user-friendly nomogram could facilitate the early identification of PTB cases among suspected patients with negative M. tuberculosis microbiological evidence.

Keywords: clinically diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis; electronic health record; lncRNA; nomogram.