A Pre-Intervention 4-Item Scale for Predicting Poor Outcome Despite Successful Recanalization in Basilar Artery Occlusion

Transl Stroke Res. 2020 Dec;11(6):1306-1313. doi: 10.1007/s12975-020-00813-0. Epub 2020 Apr 21.


Poor outcome despite successful recanalization is a relatively common occurrence after endovascular therapy (EVT) in acute intracranial large vessel occlusion. We aimed to develop a simple pre-intervention scale with readily available indicators for predicting the 90-day poor outcome in acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) patients with successful recanalization after EVT. A prospectively registered consecutive cohort of acute BAO patients treated with EVT in a tertiary stroke center during a 6-year period was reviewed. Poor outcome despite successful recanalization was defined as a 90-day mRS of > 3 despite a post-intervention mTICI of ≥ 2b. A logistic regression analysis was employed to develop the predictive scale. The performance of the scale was estimated by ROC curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Poor outcome was observed in 48 of 109 patients included in this study. The proposed scale consisted of four selected pre-intervention predictors, including the NIHSS score, Pons-Midbrain Index (PMI), bilateral thalamic infarction, and Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) collateral score. The 4-item scale revealed good discrimination with an area under curve of 0.83 (95% CI = 0.75-0.90) and acceptable calibration assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.48). The optimal cutoff value of the scale (range 0-5 points) was ≥ 3 points with 77% sensitivity, 80% specificity, and 79% accuracy. As a pre-intervention predictive model, the 4-item scale has promising predictive value for poor outcome despite successful recanalization in BAO patients treated with EVT. Nevertheless, external validation with blinded outcome is still needed to confirm its performance before clinical application.

Keywords: Basilar artery occlusion; Endovascular therapy; Poor outcome; Predictive model; Successful recanalization.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Catheterization, Peripheral / adverse effects
  • Catheterization, Peripheral / trends*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Endovascular Procedures / adverse effects
  • Endovascular Procedures / trends
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care / methods*
  • Prospective Studies
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed / methods
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Vertebrobasilar Insufficiency / diagnostic imaging*
  • Vertebrobasilar Insufficiency / surgery*
  • Young Adult