Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Potential, Iran, 2020

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;26(8):1915-1917. doi: 10.3201/eid2608.200536. Epub 2020 Apr 22.

Abstract

To determine the transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Iran in 2020, we estimated the reproduction number as 4.4 (95% CI 3.9-4.9) by using a generalized growth model and 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-8.1) by using epidemic doubling time. The reproduction number decreased to 1.55 after social distancing interventions were implemented.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; Iran; SARS-CoV-2; communicable diseases; coronavirus disease; epidemiology; infections; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus / growth & development*
  • Betacoronavirus / pathogenicity
  • COVID-19
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Clinical Laboratory Techniques / methods
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods
  • Communicable Disease Control / organization & administration*
  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Iran / epidemiology
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Pandemics* / prevention & control
  • Physical Distancing
  • Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Time Factors