The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbroke in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, affecting more than 200 countries and regions. This study aimed to predict the development of the epidemic with specific interventional policies applied in China and evaluate their effectiveness. COVID-19 data of Hubei Province and the next five most affected provinces were collected from daily case reports of COVID-19 on the Health Committee official website of these provinces. The number of current cases, defined as the number of confirmed cases minus the number of cured cases and those who have died, were examined in this study. A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model was used to assess the effects of interventional policies on the epidemic. In this study, 28 January was day 0 of the model. The results of the modified SEIR model showed that the number of current cases in Hubei and Zhejiang provinces tended to be stabilized after 70 days and after 60 days in the four other provinces. The predicted number of current cases without policy intervention was shown to far exceed that with policy intervention. The estimated number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province with policy intervention was predicted to peak at 51 222, whereas that without policy intervention was predicted to reach 157 721. Based on the results of the model, strong interventional policies were found to be vital components of epidemic control. Applying such policies is likely to shorten the duration of the epidemic and reduce the number of new cases.
Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; epidemic; policy; susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed.
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