Quantifying accident risk and severity due to speed from the reaction point to the critical conflict in fatal motorcycle accidents

Peter Murphy; Andrew Morris

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105548

Quantifying accident risk and severity due to speed from the reaction point to the critical conflict in fatal motorcycle accidents

Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Jun:141:105548. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105548. Epub 2020 Apr 29.

Authors

Peter Murphy¹, Andrew Morris²

Affiliations

¹ Transport Safety Research Group, Design School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK.
² Transport Safety Research Group, Design School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK. Electronic address: a.p.morris@lboro.co.uk.

PMID: 32361269
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105548

Abstract

In fatal road vehicle accidents motorcycles are overrepresented per vehicle kilometre travelled. Fatal accidents involving motorcycles contain mode specific characteristics, and in common with fatal accidents involving all road users, speed typically presents as a significant contributory factor. The aim of the present study is to provide quantitative estimates for the contribution of speed in situations commencing from the reaction location to the safety critical event involving a motorcyclist and resulting in a fatal accident. The contribution of speed to the resulting accident risk and accident severity is considered from this reaction point. A speed-squared versus stopping distance domain, termed the severity-risk space, is examined to determine the accident measures. The defined accident measures, namely, accident risk, accident severity and accident severity risk are calculated for sixteen fatal accidents from a police dataset of recent UK motorcycle accidents. The estimates of the defined measures are provided in terms relative to values estimated for the vehicle travelling at the speed limit at the safety critical event. The relative accident risk in response to a safety critical situation shows a partial speed dependent reaction phase and a speed-squared dependent braking phase and ranges from 1.3 to 2.8. The speed-squared dependent accident severity measure ranges from 1.4 to 7.3 at pre-impact speeds. The relative accident severity risk shows speed squared to speed cubed dependency components during the reaction phase and a speed to the power of four dependent braking phase and ranges from 2.3 to 22.8. In eight cases the collision would have been avoided had the motorcyclist been travelling at the speed limit at the critical point and in the other eight cases the relative accident severity at impact ranged from 1.4 to 17.2. The speed-squared versus stopping distance domain provides an informative parameter space for considering the accident risk and accident severity dimensions of road user accidents.

Keywords: Accident risk; Accident severity; Kinetic energy; Motorcycle accident; Speed; Stopping distance.