A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

Arch Osteoporos. 2020 May 6;15(1):68. doi: 10.1007/s11657-020-00743-2.


The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Introduction: The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.

Objective: This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Methods: The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Results: Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75-80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.

Conclusion: The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Keywords: Epidemiology; FRAX; Fracture probability; Hip fracture; Kazakhstan; Kyrgyz Republic; Surrogate.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bone Density
  • Female
  • Hip Fractures* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Kazakhstan / epidemiology
  • Kyrgyzstan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Osteoporotic Fractures / epidemiology
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors