[Establishment of Clinical Features and Prognostic Scoring Model in Early-Stage Hepatitis B-related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure]

Zhonghua Gan Zang Bing Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 20;28(4):310-318. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20200316-00116.
[Article in Chinese]

Abstract

Objective: To explore the clinical characteristics and establish a corresponding prognostic scoring model in patients with early-stage clinical features of hepatitis B-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). Methods: Clinical characteristics of 725 cases with hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic hepatic dysfunction (HBV-ACHD) were retrospectively analyzed using Chinese group on the study of severe hepatitis B (COSSH). The independent risk factors associated with 90-day prognosis to establish a prognostic scoring model was analyzed by multivariate Cox regression, and was validated by 500 internal and 390 external HBV-ACHD patients. Results: Among 725 cases with HBV-ACHD, 76.8% were male, 96.8% had cirrhosis base,66.5% had complications of ascites, 4.1% had coagulation failure in respect to organ failure, and 9.2% had 90-day mortality rate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TBil, WBC and ALP were the best predictors of 90-day mortality rate in HBV-ACHD patients. The established scoring model was COSS-HACHADs = 0.75 × ln(WBC) + 0.57 × ln(TBil)-0.94 × ln(ALP) +10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of subjects was significantly higher than MELD, MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-C ADs(P < 0.05). An analysis of 500 and 390 cases of internal random selection group and external group had similar verified results. Conclusion: HBV-ACHD patients are a group of people with decompensated cirrhosis combined with small number of organ failure, and the 90-day mortality rate is 9.2%. COSSH-ACHDs have a higher predictive effect on HBV-ACHD patients' 90-day prognosis, and thus provide evidence-based medicine for early clinical diagnosis and treatment.

目的: 探讨乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)前期患者的临床特征,并建立相应的预后评分模型。 方法: 利用HBV-ACLF中国诊断标准研究(COSSH-ACLF)队列,回顾性分析725例乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝功能障碍(HBV-ACHD)患者的临床特征,采用多因素COX回归分析90 d预后的相关独立危险因素并建立预后评分模型,并利用内部500例和外部390例HBV-ACHD患者进行验证。 结果: 在725例HBV-ACHD患者中,男性为主(76.8%),96.8%患者有肝硬化基础,并发症以腹水(66.5%)多见,器官衰竭以凝血功能衰竭(4.1%)为主,90 d病死率为9.2%。多因素COX回归分析得出,总胆红素(TBil)、白细胞计数(WBC)、碱性磷酸酶(ALP)是HBV-ACHD患者90 d病死率的最佳预测指标,并建立评分模型COSSH-ACHDs = 0.75×ln(WBC)+ 0.57×ln(TBil)- 0.94×ln(ALP)+10,其受试者工作特征曲线下面积(auROC)显著高于终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na、CTP及CLIF-C ADs(P < 0.05),500例内部随机选择组和390例外部验证组均验证了类似结果。 结论: HBV-ACHD患者是一组以肝硬化失代偿为主、合并少量器官衰竭的人群,其90 d病死率为9.2%,COSSH-ACHDs具有更高的预测HBV-ACHD患者90 d预后的效能,为临床早期诊治提供循证医学依据。.

Keywords: Acute-on-chronic hepatic dysfunction; Hepatitis B; Prognostic score.

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  • English Abstract