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. 2020 May 6;7:169.
doi: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00169. eCollection 2020.

Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China

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Free PMC article

Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China

Jia Wangping et al. Front Med (Lausanne). .
Free PMC article

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies. Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item. Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04-6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73-5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114-274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy. Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; coronavirus; epidemics trend; prediction.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Epidemic development of COVID-19 in Hunan, China and Italy. (A,B): Daily new COVID-19 cases in Hunan, China and Italy. (C,D): Epidemic distribution of COVID-19 in Hunan, China and Italy.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 under existing preventions in Hunan, China according to eSIR model. The black dots left to the blue vertical line denote the observed proportions of the infected and removed compartments on the last date of available observations or before. The blue vertical line denotes time t0. The green and purple vertical lines denote the first and second turning points, respectively. The cyan and salmon color area denotes the 95% credible interval of the predicted proportions of the infected and removed cases before and after t0, respectively. The gray and red curves are the posterior mean and median curves. (A) Prediction of the infection of COVID-19; (B) prediction of the removed of COVID-19.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 under existing preventions in Italy according to eSIR model. The black dots left to the blue vertical line denote the observed proportions of the infected and removed compartments on the last date of available observations or before. The blue vertical line denotes time t0. The green and purple vertical lines denote the first and second turning points, respectively. The cyan and salmon color area denotes the 95% credible interval of the predicted proportions of the infected and removed cases before and after t0, respectively. The gray and red curves are the posterior mean and median curves. (A) Prediction of the infection of COVID-19; (B) prediction of the removed of COVID-19.

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