Nomogram to predict multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Ann Clin Microbiol Antimicrob. 2020 Jun 6;19(1):27. doi: 10.1186/s12941-020-00369-9.


Background: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is burgeoning globally, and has been a serious challenge in TB management. Clinically, the ability to identify MDR-TB is still limited, especially in smear-negative TB. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for predicting MDR-TB.

Methods: Demographics and clinical characteristics of both MDR-TB and drug-susceptible TB patients were utilized to develop a nomogram for predicting MDR-TB. The LASSO regression method was applied to filter variables and select predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a nomogram. The discriminatory ability of the model was determined by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Moreover, calibration analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the model were performed. This study involved a second analysis of a completed prospective cohort study conducted in a country with a high TB burden.

Results: Five variables of TB patients were selected through the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.759 (95% CI, 0.719-0.799), and in the internal validation, the AUC was 0.757 (95% CI, 0.715-0.793). The predictive model was well-calibrated, and DCA showed that if the threshold probability of MDR-TB was between 70 and 90%, using the proposed nomogram to predict MDR-TB would obtain a net benefit.

Conclusions: In this study, a nomogram was constructed that incorporated five demographic and clinical characteristics of TB patients. The nomogram may be of great value for the prediction of MDR-TB in patients with sputum-free or smear-negative TB.

Keywords: Infection; MDR-TB; Prediction.