Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from Hubei, China

Glob Health Res Policy. 2020 Jun 8:5:30. doi: 10.1186/s41256-020-00151-6. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Background: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion.

Methods: Based on the panel data from Hubei, China between January 6th and February 6th, 2020, a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19. Stata version 12.0 was used, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results: The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11-12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, which suggests a period of 11-12 days from contact to being confirmed. The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9-12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level.

Conclusion: Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19, and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Infectious disease epidemic; Lockdown intervention; Population mobility.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Human Migration*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Population Dynamics*