Risk factors for disease progression in patients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019-a multi-centre observational study

Clin Microbiol Infect. 2020 Jun 9;S1198-743X(20)30341-4. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2020.05.041. Online ahead of print.


Objectives: Since December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that emerged in Wuhan city has spread rapidly around the world. The risk for poor outcome dramatically increases once a patient progresses to the severe or critical stage. The present study aims to investigate the risk factors for disease progression in individuals with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Methods: We conducted a cohort study that included 1007 individuals with mild to moderate COVID-19 from three hospitals in Wuhan. Clinical characteristics and baseline laboratory findings were collected. Patients were followed up for 28 days for observation of disease progression. The end point was the progression to a more severe disease stage.

Results: During a follow up of 28 days, 720 patients (71.50%) had recovered or were symptomatically stable, 222 patients (22.05%) had progressed to severe disease, 22 patients (2.18%) had progressed to the critically ill stage and 43 patients (4.27%) had died. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models identified that increased age (hazard ratio (HR) 2.56, 95% CI 1.97-3.33), male sex (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.41-2.28), presence of hypertension (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.11-1.88), diabetes (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.35-2.44), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.38-2.93) and coronary artery disease (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.26-2.66) were risk factors for disease progression. History of smoking was protective against disease progression (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.91). Elevated procalcitonin (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.02-2.90), urea nitrogen (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.21-2.43), α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HR 3.02, 95% CI 1.26-7.21) and D-dimer (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.12-3.58) at baseline were also associated with risk for disease progression.

Conclusions: This study identified a panel of risk factors for disease progression in individuals with mild to moderate COVID-19.

Keywords: Co-morbidity; Coronavirus disease 2019; Disease progression; Laboratory findings; Risk factors.