Demographic and Health Indicators in Correlation to Interstate Variability of Incidence, Confirmation, Hospitalization, and Lethality in Mexico: Preliminary Analysis from Imported and Community Acquired Cases during COVID-19 Outbreak

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jun 15;17(12):4281. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17124281.

Abstract

This study's objective is to analyze the incidence, lethality, hospitalization, and confirmation of COVID-19 cases in Mexico. Sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 cases in Mexico began after the confirmation of the first patient with community transmission. Methods: This epidemiologic, cross-sectional study includes all clinically suspected, and laboratory-confirmed cases nationwide from the beginning of the outbreak to 21 April 2020. State-cluster demographic data and health indicators were analyzed in reference to epidemiologic measures, with logistic regressions for the dependent variables of incidence, confirmation, and lethality. Results: The national incidence was 13.89/100,000 inhabitants with a 6.52% overall lethality and a confirmed-case mortality of 11.1%. The incidence variation significantly correlated with migration, but not urbanization. Pediatric patients were less prone to be tested (OR = -3.92), while geriatric individuals were a priority. State lethality positively correlated with the proportion of the population assisted at public hospitals and correlated inversely to the number of hospitals and clinics in the state. Conclusions: Migration strongly correlated with incidence; elderly patients had lower odds of being hospitalized but were likely to die. Patients aged <15 were less prone to be laboratory-confirmed. Case confirmation was not performed in all hospitalized patients, but 72.15% of hospitalized patients had favorable outcomes to date.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mexico; disease outbreak; epidemics; sentinel surveillance.

Publication types

  • Observational Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / mortality
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Mexico / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / mortality
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Sentinel Surveillance
  • Young Adult