Introduction and hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing pelvic organ prolapse surgery.
Methods: We performed a retrospective review of 354 patients who underwent surgery for pelvic organ prolapse from 2013 to 2017 at a single academic institution. Patient medical information and surgical procedure were entered into the calculator to obtain predicted complication rates, which were compared with observed complications. Logistic regression, C-statistic, and Brier score were used to assess the accuracy of the calculator.
Results: Of 354 patients included in the analysis, 79.7% were under the age of 75, and 41.5% were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥3. The majority of patients underwent robotic sacrocolpopexy (40.7%) or uterosacral ligament suspension (36.4%), followed by colpocleisis, abdominal sacrocolpopexy, and extraperitoneal suspension. Complications were experienced by 100 patients (28.3%). Most common complications were urinary tract infection (n = 57), surgical site infection (n = 42), and readmission (n = 16); other complications were rare. The surgical risk calculator displayed poor predictive ability for experiencing a complication (C-statistic = 0.547, Brier score = 0.25).
Conclusions: The NSQIP surgical risk calculator displayed poor predictive ability in our cohort of patients undergoing surgery for pelvic organ prolapse, suggesting that this tool might have limited clinical applicability to individual patients in this population.
Keywords: Complication; NSQIP; Postoperative; Prolapse.