Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19

Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2021 Apr;15(2):e15-e22. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.217. Epub 2020 Jun 24.


Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the risks in confronting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the United States using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase.

Methods: Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold fast responsiveness, and the ongoing performance until plateau. The Infected Patient Ratio (IPR) tool was developed to measure the number of patients resulting from 1 infector during the incubation period. Both IPR and TRA were used together to forecast inflection points, plateau phases, intensive care units' and ventilators' breakpoints, and the Total Fatality Ratio.

Results: In Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the United States, an inflection point is predicted within the first 15 d of April, to arrive at a plateau after another 30 to 80 d. Variations in IPR drop are expected due to variations in lockdown timing by each country, the extent of adherence to it, and the number of performed tests in each.

Conclusions: Both qualitative (TRA) and quantitative (IPR) tools can be used together for assessing and minimizing the pandemic risks and for more precise forecasting.

Keywords: COVID-19; ICU capacity; forecast; lockdown; pandemic.