Policy Implications of an Approximate Linear Infection Model for SARS-CoV-2

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Jun 8:2020.06.04.20122549. doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20122549.


We propose a linear model of infection probability, and prove that this is a good approximation to a more refined model in which we assume infections come from a series of independent risks. We argue that the linearity assumption makes interpreting and using the model much easier, without significantly diminishing the reliability of the model.

Publication types

  • Preprint