Development of a Risk Score to Predict 90-Day Readmission After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft

Ann Thorac Surg. 2021 Feb;111(2):488-494. doi: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2020.04.142. Epub 2020 Jun 23.


Background: Readmission after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is used for quality metrics and may negatively affect hospital reimbursement. Our objective was to develop a risk score system from a national cohort that can predict 90-day readmission risk for CABG patients.

Methods: Using the National Readmission Database between 2013 and 2014, we identified 104,930 patients discharged after CABG, for a total of 234,483 patients after weighted analysis. Using structured random sampling, patients were divided into a training set (60%) and test data set (40%). In the training data set, we used multivariable analysis to identify risk factors. A point system risk score was developed based on the odds ratios. Variables with odds ratio less than 1.3 were excluded from the final model to reduce noise. Performance was assessed in the test data set using receiver operator characteristics and accuracy.

Results: In the United States, overall 90-day readmission rate after CABG was 19% (n = 44,559 of 234,483). Nine demographic and clinical variables were identified as important in the training data set. The final risk score ranged from 0 to 52; the 2 largest risks were associated with length of stay greater than 10 days (score = +10) and Medicaid insurance (score = +7). The final model's C-statistic was 0.67. Using an optimal cutoff of 18 points, the accuracy of the risk score was 77%.

Conclusions: Ninety-day readmission after CABG surgery is frequent. A readmission risk score higher than 18 points predicts readmission in 77% of patients. Based on 9 demographic and clinical factors, this risk score can be used to target high-risk patients for additional postdischarge resources to reduce readmission.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Aftercare / statistics & numerical data*
  • Aged
  • Coronary Artery Bypass / adverse effects*
  • Coronary Artery Disease / surgery*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Readmission / trends*
  • Postoperative Complications / epidemiology*
  • Prognosis
  • Registries
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Rate / trends
  • United States / epidemiology