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. 2020 Apr 23;4(3):e096.
doi: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000096. eCollection 2020 Jun.

Estimating the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in 297 United States counties

Kate R Weinberger  1   2 , Daniel Harris  3 , Keith R Spangler  2   4 , Antonella Zanobetti  5 , Gregory A Wellenius  2   4
Affiliations

Estimating the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in 297 United States counties

Kate R Weinberger et al. Environ Epidemiol. .

Abstract

There is a well-established relationship between high ambient temperature and risk of death. However, the number of deaths attributable to heat each year in the United States remains incompletely quantified.

Methods: We replicated the approach from a large, international study to estimate temperature-mortality associations in 297 United States counties and additionally calculated the number of deaths attributable to heat, a quantity of likely interest to policymakers and the public.

Results: Across 297 counties representing 61.9% of the United States population in 2000, we estimate that an average of 5,608 (95% empirical confidence interval = 4,748, 6,291) deaths were attributable to heat annually, 1997-2006.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that the number of deaths related to heat in the United States is substantially larger than previously reported.

Keywords: Extreme heat; Mortality; Temperature; United States.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest with regard to the content of this report.

Figures

Figure.
Figure.
Estimated annual number of excess deaths attributable to heat per million people in each of 297 populous United States counties, 1997–2006. Heat is defined for each county as all temperatures greater than the county-specific minimum mortality temperature. Heat-related death rates are grouped into deciles. Heat-related death rates are not age-standardized. No study counties were located in Alaska or Hawaii.
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