Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

Viruses. 2020 Jun 30;12(7):708. doi: 10.3390/v12070708.


COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

Keywords: COVID-19, epidemic, Hungary, under-ascertainment, SARS-CoV-2, compartmental model, reproduction number, intervention, case fatality rate.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Betacoronavirus*
  • COVID-19
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / mortality
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Disease Outbreaks* / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hungary / epidemiology
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / mortality
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Quarantine
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Sex Factors
  • Young Adult